A Few Words on Electoral Reform

2011 photo by John Woods, Canadian Press. From the CBC article, "Can internet voting boost turnout without risk?"

No urban planning today! Well, at least not directly. The combination of the US Presidential Election, the recent Quebec election, and especially the recent proposal to switch Toronto to a ranked ballot system for 2018 has got me thinking about electoral reform. There is obviously some connection between who we elect and what we build, but that's politics. And politics shouldn't be confused as being synonymous with elections (although certainly, elections are influenced by politics). Er, wait, let me start over here.

Since the time that Stephen Harper was elected back in 2006, I've heard a relatively steady chorus of complaints against the "first-past-the-post" system that is the dominant electoral system in North America. The complaints are thus: many times, a politican (or their party) will be elected to their respective position(s) with a seat count that is inflated/deflated (compared to their percentage of the popular vote) because only a plurality of votes (not a majority) is the requirement to "win". It's too easy for your vote to be "wasted". This combination is said to be making people disengage from elections.

There are several options that stand out as solutions, at least in the Canadian context:

First-past-the-post: What we have now. As the name suggests, it's about reaching the "finish line" first, not necessarily about doing it gracefully. If you gain a plurality of votes, you win.

Proportional Representation (PR): Generally in a PR system, voters elect parties, not individuals. Seats are divided up based on the percentage of the popular vote, filled from a party "list". This system ensures that your vote counts, but it also makes it nearly impossible to determine who represents you/your "riding".

Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMP): Seats are divided into two categories, with voters picking both an individual in their riding, and a party. The first category of seats are filled through plurality votes for a candidate in the riding, as normal. The second are filled based on the percentage of the popular vote that a party gets. It's more complicated than that, but the end result is that you end up with a direct representative for your riding, and each party gets a percentage of the seats in government roughly equal to the percentage of voters who picked their party on the ballot.

Single Transferable Vote (STV): Voters "rank" candidates in order of preference, with multiple people able to represent a particular area. A "quota" of votes is established based on the number of votes and the number of seats to fill. Whoever "meets" the quota gets elected to the area, and any "extra" votes for a candidate (the ones that weren't needed for that candidate to "win") are distributed to the remaining candidates according to second choices. If this allows other candidates to reach the quota, they're elected, and the process continues until the seats are filled. Otherwise, the person with the fewest votes is dropped, and the "second" choice votes are added to the remaining candidates. Repeat until you fill all the seats for a riding. Potentially confusing to figure out who represents you.

Instant-runoff Voting (IRV): Voters "rank" candidates in order of preference. First picks are tallied, and if no candidate ends up with 50% of the vote, the person who ended up "last" in :first picks" is removed from the ballot, and anyone who voted for the last-place candidate has their votes "changed" to their second pick. This continues into one candidate receives 50% +1 of the popular vote, at which point they are the winner. Can allow for "compromise" candidates who are not really the voter's "first choice", but potentially their "second".

There are dozens of other methods, many of which are even more convoluted to explain. The point to take out is that each has advantages and disadvantages. Did you read one of my descriptions above, and still not understand how the method worked? That's a disadvantage! But while most usually create new problems, each tries to solve at least one problem with first-past-the-post.

Stephen Harper was not the first politician to be criticized because his party did not manage to grab more than 50% of the popular vote (fun fact: he and his mentor, Tom Flanagan, published a piece called "Our Benign Dictatorship" that argued for electoral reform back in the Chrétien era). The cries for electoral reform resurfaced when Rodney MacDonald was elected as Premier of Nova Scotia in 2006 (the Liberals got 23.5% of the vote, but only 17.3% of the seats), and when Harper was reelected in 2011 (claiming 39.6% of the vote, but gaining 53.9% of the seats).

The criticism can get even more extreme, such as when Toronto's Mayor Rob Ford garnered 47.1% of the popular vote to win the mayoral race, but because only 53.2% of eligible voters turned out, technically he became the mayor of the entire City of Toronto despite only about 1 in 4 of Toronto's citizens actually putting an "X" next to his name on the ballot. I hang around mostly left-leaning social circles, so the fact that all of these politicians are conservative should come as no surprise (but I'm sure the right complain to each other about how broken the system is when their guys lose too).

Let's not mince words: the "first-past-the-post" system absolutely benefits a government like Stephen Harper's (just as it did for Jean Chrétien's Liberals in 1993, 1997, and 2000), so politically there is little reason for him to "reform" the system. Additionally, it's also true that many elections are held when university students (an NDP leaning bunch in general) are away from their electoral districts (putting an additional barrier up that may cause them not to vote). Heck, I'm sure you could find evidence of voter suppression and fraud too, and yes, the electoral turnout decay is an issue, as are the benefits for incumbent candidates. But when most people talk about electoral reform, they're usually saying "The person I don't like was elected, we should reform the system so my person has a better chance."

That's fair! What is electoral reform other than hoping to make your vote count? But electoral reform is more than just politics. It's about fundamentally altering the way citizens elect their representatives, in a way that usually entails making voting a more difficult and time consuming choice (and the results, often more complicated, and potentially problematic).

Yes, electoral reform is often championed by proponents who believe it will help fix voter turnout (short answer: it would likely have a small effect; studies of a proportional representation system found about a 3-7% increase in voter turnout).

Yes, electoral reform could result in your vote "counting", creating a system where "majority" of voters elect a particular candidate rather than a plurality (although the chances of the electoral population as a whole actually voting in a candidate with a majority would still be slim; and depending on the system used, your vote still has a chance at being "wasted" in the current sense).

And yes, electoral reform could break the "two-party systems" that are seen in the United States and many riding in Canada, but they could also cause immense fragmentation, and the election of fringe parties with more political extreme views than we normally see elected (do you want the Christian Heritage Party or the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist) to have a chance at seats in the House of Commons?).

Just to be clear: I would love electoral reform. I'm personally in favour of some sort of PR system, particularly a Mixed-Member Proportional system (perhaps surprisingly, I love the idea of minority governments). But we can't deny that there are benefits to first-past-the-post. It's easy to understand, it's fast to tabulate, and as a voter, it's clear who you're voting for. Most systems can't make those claims. It isn't too surprising therefore that referendums to switch to a different systems such as MMP in Ontario, and STV in British Columbia) were defeated.

And we also can't forget that there are other solutions than electoral reform to solving some of first-past-the-post's problems. Fixed election dates, new and easier voting methods (e.g. internet voting) , and even rethinking voter engagement (particularly the youth vote)  can bring tangible results without the need for a referendum on how we vote.

That said, first-past-the-post has had a good run here in Canada. I think getting some exposure to new voting systems, particularly at a municipal level, would be a good exercise. The proposal to switch to an "IRV" system here in Toronto is being reviewed, and I hope it's well received.